A fast moving weather system will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions back to the state. This will be the last blog entry for this incident as the Incident command post in Merkle Texas is shutting down, For the latest weather information, please contact you local National Weather Service Office.
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue over the state as the southerly flow remains in place. A weak dry line over the west may still kick up an afternoon shower and thunderstorm from the Permian basin north. A much better chance of seeing precipitation will be from the lower Trans Pecos east to the coastal plains as an upper level disturbance track across the southern part of the state. A strong upper level trough will approach the state this weekend with elevated fire weather conditions possible over the western part of the state Saturday. The full brunt of the system will be felt Sunday with most of the west and northwest branches likely seeing critical fire weather conditions returning. Cooler air will follow for Monday.
Little change in the overall pattern is expected today with another chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the western part of the state and specifically over the Big Bend and Trans Pecos. Weak upper level disturbances will move through the prevailing southwest flow aloft and interact with the dry line to kick off the precipitation. Southeast surface winds will bring in some moisture but some dry lightning strikes are still anticipated. A stronger disturbance will move from southwest Texas to the northeast part of the state Wednesday night through Friday for better precipitation chances. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the western and central panhandle today while critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday and possibly Monday.
Little change in the overall pattern is expected today with another chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the western part of the state and specifically over the Big Bend and Trans Pecos. Weak upper level disturbances will move through the prevailing southwest flow aloft and interact with the dry line to kick off the precipitation. Southeast surface winds will bring in some moisture but some dry lightning strikes are still anticipated. A stronger disturbance will move from southwest Texas to the northeast part of the state Wednesday night through Friday for better precipitation chances. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the western and central panhandle today while critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday and possibly Monday.
Surface winds from the southeast will continue to keep gulf moisture over the state. Meanwhile, winds aloft are from the southwest but will become more westerly with time. Several weak upper level disturbances will move through the upper flow and interact with a weak dry line over the west. The result will be isolated, mainly late day showers and thunderstorms but not a lot of actual rain is expected. The strongest of these disturbances will move through later in the week with better chances of precipitation at that time. Only localized, elevated fire weather concerns are expected for today across parts of the west and northwest branches. Elevated concerns return for parts of the panhandle Wednesday.
Surface winds from the southeast will continue to keep gulf moisture over the state. Meanwhile, winds aloft are from the southwest but will become more westerly with time. Several weak upper level disturbances will move through the upper flow and interact with a weak dry line over the west. The result will be isolated, mainly late day showers and thunderstorms but not a lot of actual rain is expected. The strongest of these disturbances will move through later in the week with better chances of precipitation at that time. Only localized, elevated fire weather concerns are expected for today across parts of the west and northwest branches. Elevated concerns return for parts of the panhandle Wednesday.
The high pressure system responsible for the sunny and dry weather of late continues to break down as a strong upper level storm system moves into the Great Basin. The system will pass well to the north of Texas during the day and will push the high east, resulting in a west to southwest flow aloft. Several weak ripples of low pressure will move through this flow and interact with a developing dry line to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Little actual rain is expected to reach the ground and dry lightning remains possible. Gusty winds over parts of the northwest and west branches with relatively low humidity will result in areas of elevated fire weather concerns for Monday.
The high pressure system responsible for the sunny and dry weather of late continues to break down as a strong upper level storm system moves into the Great Basin. The system will pass well to the north of Texas during the day and will push the high east, resulting in a west to southwest flow aloft. Several weak ripples of low pressure will move through this flow and interact with a developing dry line to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Little actual rain is expected to reach the ground and dry lightning remains possible. Gusty winds over parts of the northwest and west branches with relatively low humidity will result in areas of elevated fire weather concerns for Monday.
High pressure both aloft and on the surface, will continue to dominate. The center of the high will shift east during the day and allow a southwest flow aloft to develop. This will bring in slightly higher moisture levels and also help winds pick up a bit over the west and northwest branches. These increased winds, with still low humidity, will result in elevated fire weather concerns for parts of the northwest branch. A repeat performance is likely for Monday as the high continues to move east. The dry line will set back up and provide the focus for widely scattered, mainly late day showers and possible thunderstorms over the western half of the state the majority of next week. Rainfall amounts will be light and the possibility of dry lightning exists.
High pressure both aloft and on the surface, will continue to dominate. The center of the high will shift east during the day Sunday and allow a southwest flow aloft to develop. This will bring in slightly higher moisture levels and also help winds pick up a bit over the west and northwest branches. These increased winds, with still low humidity, will result in elevated fire weather concerns for parts of the northwest branch. A repeat performance is likely for Monday as the high continues to move east. The dry line will set back up and provide the focus for widely scattered, mainly late day showers and possible thunderstorms over the western half of the state the majority of next week. Rainfall amounts will be light and the possibility of dry lightning exists.
